Revenue is down, but traffic is up?

A practical guide to analyzing CVR, AOV, and LTV when revenue drops but traffic doesn’t.

Hey, it’s Cam from Platter. 👋

If your feed looks anything like mine, it’s been hijacked by Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle ads and everyone’s take on whether genetics has a place in marketing.

So for this issue, I’ll spare you the commentary and keep things tactical.

I’ve put together a guide on what to do when your revenue goes down but traffic is up (or stable).

Let’s get into it.

Revenue’s down, but traffic is… up?

If your revenue is dropping, chances are your first instinct is to look at traffic. Makes sense. Less traffic, fewer sales, right?

It’s not always that simple.

Sometimes traffic is stable (or it’s increased) and revenue can still be trending in the wrong direction. That’s when things get a bit confusing.

If/when this happens, it helps to step back and remember: revenue doesn’t depend on traffic alone. It’s the result of several contributing factors, and traffic is just one of them.

Let’s look at three key metrics CVR, AOV, and LTV — to help you assess the situation and determine your next move.

Traffic isn’t the whole story

Acquiring traffic does not equal revenue. Chances are you need to look a few layers deeper to understand where the problem lies.

Here are three common ways to break it down:

  • Sessions × Conversion Rate × AOV
    (How much traffic you get × how well it converts × how much people spend per order)

  • Number of Orders × AOV
    (How many purchases happen × what’s the average value per order)

  • AOV × Repeat Orders
    (How much they spend per order × how many times they order)

Each of these gives you a different lens into what’s really going on. And when traffic looks fine but revenue doesn’t, one of these components is probably to blame.

Let’s break them down one by one.

Step 1: Your conversion rate is taking a hit

Formula: Orders ÷ Sessions

Traffic means nothing if no one’s buying. Even a small dip in CVR can have a big impact on revenue.

Here’s what might be happening:

  • Bounce rate is up?
    You may be overpromising in your ads or under-delivering on your landing page.

  • Add-to-cart rate is down?
    Check PDPs with low ATC. Price too high? Bad images? Key variants out of stock?

  • Cart abandonment is spiking?
    Broken discount code or low interaction with checkout button?

  • Checkout CVR dropped?
    Missing payment options? Tech issues? Shipping time increase?

Step 2: People are buying but spending less

Formula: Revenue ÷ Orders

This is your Average Order Value (AOV). And when AOV goes down, you’re earning less even with the same number of orders/customers.

A few things to check:

  • Lower average item price
    Are discounts too aggressive? Are higher-priced SKUs no longer selling?

  • Fewer items per order
    Upsells and bundle sales down? Items out of stock?

  • Orders with discounts
    Are people stacking discount codes? Missing restrictions on your promo codes?

Looking for ways to increase AOV?

Platter+ helps with that. From post-purchase offers to in-checkout cross-selling, our app is built to increase how much your customers spend without relying on aggressive discounts. Brands like Neuro have generated over $67k at a 42x ROI with just a few clicks. Setup takes just a few minutes.

Step 3: Your best customers aren’t coming back

Formula: AOV × Total Orders Per Customer

This is your LTV (Customer Lifetime Value) and it’s especially important if you depend on repeat purchases. When traffic and conversion rate are steady, but LTV drops, it usually means customers aren’t coming back, or aren’t spending as much when they do. We’ve discussed AOV already, so let’s talk about purchase frequency and retention time:

  • Email/SMS flows aren’t working
    Check open rates and click-throughs on post-purchase campaigns.

  • Bad offer/timing
    New products? Loyalty perks? Offers for repeat buyers? If not, they’re probably just not interested enough to come back.

  • Shipping or CX issue
    Delays or bad customer support?

TLDR: Traffic isn’t the problem

If revenue is dropping but traffic isn’t, it’s time to focus on:

  1. Conversion Rate — are people still buying?

  2. AOV — are they spending the same?

  3. LTV — are they coming back and buying more over time?

Usually, it’s not one big issue. It’s a mix of small ones compounding.

Fixing it starts with knowing where to look.

PARTNER SPOTLIGHT

Keep more of what you earn with Haven

Before we go… if revenue’s on your mind, so are your margins.

That’s where our awesome partner Haven comes in.

They make accounting invisible (the good kind). Haven’s the modern bookkeeping and tax partner for 500+ fast-growing teams — from solo founders to $30M+ agencies.

What makes them different is their spectacular customer service. Expect to get replies in 2 minutes, not 2-week waits.

As a Platter reader, you get 10% off your first year of bookkeeping if you mention this newsletter.